EUR/USD Maintains Stability as Core PCE Data Meets Expectations

  • The EUR/USD pair sees a slight uptick to 1.0788 after Core PCE inflation data for February aligns with market forecasts.
  • February’s headline PCE inflation indicates a modest increase, keeping market anticipation steady for the Federal Reserve’s future actions.
  • Traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Mary Daly.
  • The EUR/USD pair remains relatively unchanged in light trading conditions following the release of the February Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which corresponds with market estimates.
  • As a result, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0788, showing marginal gains of 0.02%.

Minimal Movement in EUR/USD After US Inflation Data

The BEA reports that Core PCE for February is 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, aligning with market consensus. However, headline PCE figures, rising by 0.3% MoM, were slightly lower than anticipated and January’s data. Over the twelve months leading up to February, PCE came in at 2.5%, as expected, but a tenth higher than the previous month.

Additional data reveals that Wholesale Inventories Advanced for February increased by 0.5% MoM from -0.2% in the prior month.

Thin Liquidity Conditions Influence EUR/USD Movement

Thin liquidity conditions saw the EUR/USD briefly dip below 1.0780 before rebounding above 1.0790. Buyers aim for a clear break above 1.0800, although they may encounter intraday resistance, as the hourly chart shows the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0800.

Investor Focus on Powell and Daly Speeches

Investors are particularly attentive to speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. BBH analysts emphasize Powell’s speech, highlighting the importance of his stance following recent hawkish sentiments from other Fed speakers. The outcome of Powell’s speech may influence market expectations regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with current odds of a cut on June 12 standing at 66%, down from 85% post-FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

During the European session, the pair reached a low of 1.0767 before climbing above 1.0790 post-data release. Traders are now eyeing 1.0800, with a breakthrough potentially exposing higher resistance levels, including the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0834 and the 200-DMA at 1.0835. Conversely, further declines may bring support levels into focus, such as 1.0750 and the February 14 low of 1.0694.


Today last price1.0798
Today Daily Change0.0009
Today Daily Change %0.08
Today daily open1.0789
Daily SMA201.0876
Daily SMA501.0837
Daily SMA1001.0875
Daily SMA2001.0836
Previous Daily High1.0828
Previous Daily Low1.0775
Previous Weekly High1.0942
Previous Weekly Low1.0802
Previous Monthly High1.0898
Previous Monthly Low1.0695
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0795
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0808
Daily Pivot Point S11.0767
Daily Pivot Point S21.0745
Daily Pivot Point S31.0714
Daily Pivot Point R11.082
Daily Pivot Point R21.0851
Daily Pivot Point R31.0873

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