Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD recapture key $2,050 resistance?

  • Gold price is consolidating its two-day upswing near $2,050 early Wednesday.
  • The US Dollar nurses losses with US Treasury bond yields despite less dovish Fedspeak.
  • Gold price defended 21-day SMA support, and eyes a sustained break above $2,050.

Gold price is catching a breather near $2,040 early Wednesday, having tested multi-day highs at $2,048 on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) is licking its wounds in tandem with the US Treasury bond yields, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.  

Gold price shrugs off Fedspeak, as dovish Fed pivot underpins

Even though the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are trying their best to push back against expectations of potential interest rate cuts next year, the market’s pricing for rate reductions remains unchanged, with odds for a March Fed rate cut seen at around 75% while a May cut is almost a done deal.

Sustained bets of a dovish Fed pivot in 2024 continue to undermine the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar amid a relatively data-light week. Therefore, all eyes stay focused on Friday’s US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for cementing bets for a March rate cut.

Softer Core PCE inflation data could bolster March rate cut expectations, boosting Gold price at the expense of the US Dollar. However, Gold price is set to extend its recovery mode should the US inflation come in hotter-than-expected, suggesting that the inflationary pressures still remain elevated and warrant the Fed to stay ‘higher for longer’.  The Core PCE is expected to rise at an annual pace of 3.3% in November, as against a 3.5% increase in October. The Fed’s inflation target is 2.0%.

In the meantime, the mid-tier US housing data and Fedspeak will continue to drive the value of the US Dollar, in turn, impacting the Gold price. Amongst the noteworthy recent commentary from the Fed officials, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the “market has gotten ahead of themselves on euphoria” on likely interest rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said “there is no current “urgency” for the Fed to reduce US interest rates given the strength of the economy,” per Reuters.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, nothing seems to have changed for the Gold price, as the path of least resistance still appears to the upside.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator continues to hold above the midline while Gold price defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,021.

A daily closing below the latter is needed to snap the recovery mode, reopening the floor for a test of the $2,000 threshold. Further down, the 50-day SMA at $1,989 will challenge bullish commitments.

Conversely, acceptance above the $2,040-$2,050 supply zone is important for the Gold price to resume its journey toward the $2,100 psychological level. Further up, Gold buyers would look to take out the all-time highs of $2,144.

GOLD FAQS

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

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